Agent Based Technology Adoption Model for Program Planning and Design
نویسندگان
چکیده
One of the challenges in developing an energy efficiency (EE) or demand reduction program is estimating the actual adoption of EE technologies by building owners and operators. The decision to adopt any particular technology is a complex interrelation of capital costs, financing and incentive availability, energy and cost savings, non-energy and cost benefits of the technology, and the risk profiles of the building owners. Argonne National Laboratory has developed CoBAM, a commercial building agent based tool, for studying the adoption of energy efficient technologies in the marketplace. In the tool, energy and costs savings estimates of different technologies are generated using building energy models and fuel price predictions. This information is combined with information about installation costs, non-energy characteristics of the technology, and owner weightings of the different characteristics to predict what technology, if any, the owner will select for retrofit. The tool was designed for a variety of uses including technology research and development prioritization, local and regional policy planning, and EE program planning. In this paper some model validation results are presented.
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